Triangle weather: Rain still 1 to 2 inches Saturday evening; Isaias near Florida landfall

The Triangle's storm-total forecast is unchanged Friday night. The new information is about Hurricane Isaias, which was closing in on the Florida Panhandle.

The National Weather Service in Raleigh still expects 1 to 2 inches of rain across most of central North Carolina, with 0.5 to 1 inch in the northwest Piedmont. Localized amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain if a secondary low forms near the coast. The office's 7:17 p.m. Friday discussion said there were "no major changes" and listed no watches or warnings for central North Carolina.

When the rain arrives

A dry layer near the ground may keep early Saturday showers from reaching the surface, the afternoon discussion says. Rain falling aloft could evaporate as virga until that layer saturates. Widespread rain should overspread the area Saturday evening and continue through Sunday night. Models still show a brief lull around midday Sunday, then a broken band of showers and storms late Sunday afternoon and evening. Clearing should come quickly from west to east overnight Sunday into early Monday.

The weather service's Raleigh forecast, last updated at 4:19 p.m. Friday:

• Friday night: Cloudy, low around 63.
• Saturday: Cloudy, then a 60% chance of rain after 3 p.m. High near 70. Northeast wind 8 to 13 mph, gusts as high as 23 mph. A tenth to a quarter of an inch is possible during the day.
• Saturday night: Rain likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11 p.m. 90% chance of rain. A half to three-quarters of an inch is possible. East wind gusts as high as 23 mph.
• Sunday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. 90% chance. High near 79.
• Sunday night: A 60% chance of showers, mainly before 8 p.m., then partly cloudy. Low around 64.
• Monday (Columbus Day): Sunny, high near 81.

The afternoon discussion says a cold-air damming pattern will keep Saturday night cool and damp, with highs in the low and mid 60s in the northwest and the lower 70s in the southeast. Next week looks unseasonably warm, with little or no rain.

Sunday's limited severe risk

The weather service's Hazardous Weather Outlook, issued at 3:57 a.m. Friday and still the latest version Friday night, says there is a Marginal Risk on Sunday for severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes. The greatest risk is along and east of U.S. Highway 1. Spotter activation may be needed Sunday.

For Cumberland, Sampson and nearby southern counties, that outlook also includes late Saturday night and says locally heavy rain may lead to minor flooding late Saturday through midday Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center's Friday afternoon Day 3 outlook keeps a Marginal Risk on Sunday across the Mid-Atlantic. It now says the most likely place for stronger storms late Sunday afternoon is eastern Virginia into eastern North Carolina, where a couple of tornadoes or locally damaging wind gusts are possible.

The Raleigh discussion still puts the severe threat lower overall because of limited instability, but it says an isolated strong to severe storm capable of damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out, and that a brief tornado is possible mainly across the far southern and eastern part of the office's area.

A Marginal Risk is the lowest level on the Storm Prediction Center's scale. It is not a watch or a warning.

Where Isaias is now

At 7 p.m. Central time Friday (8 p.m. Eastern), the center of Isaias was about 45 miles southeast of Pensacola, moving north near 18 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in Intermediate Advisory 13A. Maximum sustained winds were near 110 mph. The center said landfall along the western Florida Panhandle was expected within the next hour or two.

A WeatherFlow station in Gulf Breeze had recently reported a sustained wind of 83 mph and a gust of 97 mph. Pensacola International Airport had reported a gust of 71 mph.

The hurricane center said the storm should weaken after landfall, move across Alabama into the Tennessee Valley on Saturday and Sunday, and become post-tropical on Saturday.

That is a change from the 1 p.m. Central advisory, which listed Isaias as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds about 145 miles south of Pensacola. The 7 p.m. advisory does not use a category number.

For the Triangle, the local weather service's 1 to 2 inch storm-total remains the number to use. The hurricane center's broader Southeast rainfall range is 2 to 5 inches, with higher amounts possible in the Southern Appalachians and along the coastal Carolinas.

What it means for the weekend

NC State hosts Wake Forest at noon Saturday at Carter-Finley Stadium. The Raleigh forecast now shows a 60% chance of rain after 3 p.m., so the start of the game may stay dry and the second half is less certain.

If you have to drive in heavy rain, the weather service says never to drive around barriers on a flooded road. Just 12 inches of rushing water can carry away most cars.

Storm spotters could be activated Sunday. A Marginal Risk is not a watch or a warning.

We will update this story as the forecast changes.